Population Projections - East Riding JSNA

Introduction

In 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest series of population projections for the UK (titled ‘National population projections: 2022-based’) and smaller areas, such as local authorities (‘Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based’). Population projections aim to provide estimates of the size and age structure of national and local populations, based on mid-year population estimates and assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration.

This page features some summary statistics (for the UK and the East Riding) and also an interactive local authority dashboard towards the bottom of the page.

More information can be obtained here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections

2022 Population Projections Overview

UK	East Riding of Yorkshire
Overall Population Growth: According to the ONS 2022 projections, the UK’s population is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. The population is projected to rise from approximately 67 million in 2022 to around 70 million by 2035. This steady increase is driven by natural change (the difference between births and deaths) and net international migration. Ageing Population: One of the most significant trends identified in the 2022 projections is the ageing population. The number of people aged 65 and over is expected to grow substantially, rising from about 12 million in 2022 to over 16 million by 2042. This demographic shift is a result of increased life expectancy and lower birth rates, leading to a higher proportion of older individuals within the population. Regional Population Distribution: The ONS projections also highlight differences in population growth across the UK’s regions. London and the South East are expected to experience the most significant increases, with populations in these areas projected to grow by over 10% by 2035. In contrast, regions such as the North East and Wales are anticipated to see much slower growth rates. Birth Rates and Family Sizes: The projections indicate a continuing trend of declining birth rates and smaller family sizes. The average number of children per woman is expected to remain below replacement level, at around 1.8. This trend reflects changing societal norms, economic factors, and personal choices regarding family planning. Net international migration: Is projected to remain a significant factor in the UK’s population growth. The ONS estimates that annual net migration will continue to contribute positively to the population, with around 200,000 more people entering the UK than leaving each year.	Population overall: The population of East Riding of Yorkshire is projected to grow from 346,316 in 2022 to 369,673 in 2032, driven mainly by migration despite a natural decrease due to more deaths than births. The area will experience an ageing population with a median age rising to 50 years and a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over compared to England overall. Population growth driven by migration: Net internal migration is expected to increase the population by 41,480 people, which is the largest factor in population change, while natural change will reduce the population by 20,084 due to more deaths than births. Net international migration will add 2,553 people, and net cross-border migration will slightly reduce the population by 577. Ageing population trend: The median age is projected to increase from 49 years in 2022 to 50 years in 2032, with 29% of the population aged 65 or older in 2032, up from 25% in 2022, which is higher than the national median age of 41 years. Stable working-age population share: The proportion of working-age people (16 years to State Pension age) is expected to remain around 57%, but the old age dependency ratio will rise from 429 to 467 per 1,000 working-age people, indicating more older people financially reliant on the working population compared to the England average. Decline in younger population share: The percentage of people aged 18 and under is projected to decrease from 19% in 2022 to 17% in 2032, with slight decreases in primary school-aged children and stability in infants and secondary school-aged children, remaining below the England average of 20%.

East Riding of Yorkshire

Overall Population Growth: According to the ONS 2022 projections, the UK’s population is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. The population is projected to rise from approximately 67 million in 2022 to around 70 million by 2035. This steady increase is driven by natural change (the difference between births and deaths) and net international migration.

Ageing Population: One of the most significant trends identified in the 2022 projections is the ageing population. The number of people aged 65 and over is expected to grow substantially, rising from about 12 million in 2022 to over 16 million by 2042. This demographic shift is a result of increased life expectancy and lower birth rates, leading to a higher proportion of older individuals within the population.

Regional Population Distribution: The ONS projections also highlight differences in population growth across the UK’s regions. London and the South East are expected to experience the most significant increases, with populations in these areas projected to grow by over 10% by 2035. In contrast, regions such as the North East and Wales are anticipated to see much slower growth rates.

Birth Rates and Family Sizes: The projections indicate a continuing trend of declining birth rates and smaller family sizes. The average number of children per woman is expected to remain below replacement level, at around 1.8. This trend reflects changing societal norms, economic factors, and personal choices regarding family planning.

Net international migration: Is projected to remain a significant factor in the UK’s population growth. The ONS estimates that annual net migration will continue to contribute positively to the population, with around 200,000 more people entering the UK than leaving each year.

Population overall: The population of East Riding of Yorkshire is projected to grow from 346,316 in 2022 to 369,673 in 2032, driven mainly by migration despite a natural decrease due to more deaths than births. The area will experience an ageing population with a median age rising to 50 years and a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over compared to England overall.

Population growth driven by migration: Net internal migration is expected to increase the population by 41,480 people, which is the largest factor in population change, while natural change will reduce the population by 20,084 due to more deaths than births. Net international migration will add 2,553 people, and net cross-border migration will slightly reduce the population by 577.

Ageing population trend: The median age is projected to increase from 49 years in 2022 to 50 years in 2032, with 29% of the population aged 65 or older in 2032, up from 25% in 2022, which is higher than the national median age of 41 years.

Stable working-age population share: The proportion of working-age people (16 years to State Pension age) is expected to remain around 57%, but the old age dependency ratio will rise from 429 to 467 per 1,000 working-age people, indicating more older people financially reliant on the working population compared to the England average.

Decline in younger population share: The percentage of people aged 18 and under is projected to decrease from 19% in 2022 to 17% in 2032, with slight decreases in primary school-aged children and stability in infants and secondary school-aged children, remaining below the England average of 20%.

Local Authority Dashboard

Use the dashboard below to see how population projections are predicted to change local authority areas.

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